The Climate Change thread - news about the changing climate and the effects on reef ecosystems.

[Northern Flicker]

Warning: people in this thread believe in climate change. This is not a political discussion - please keep your personal conspiracy beliefs personal.

Chilling Forecast: Scientists Predict a Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Current

Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold, and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. This is the conclusion based on new calculations from the University of Cope

scitechdaily.com

I wonder what this would mean for Atlantic reefs? Warmer water around the equator, much cooler water in the northern waters.

Hang on to those Florida Rics, they might be rare soon.

 

[BeanAnimal]

So - this planet:

Was once mostly molten

Then mostly ice.

All of the land was once one giant super continent.

The magnetic poles have changed countless times.

Massive swaths of Life have been wiped out and renewed several times due to not so massive impactors.

Impactors and volcanoes have regularly plunged the world into dusty cold darkness that alters weather for hundreds, if not thousand year spans.

There are fish fossils high upon mountain peeks

There are plant and animal fossils MANY thousands of feet deep in coal and shale beds, often UNDER mountains comprised of igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic rock.

There are inland lakes nearly 1000 feet deep gouged out by glaciers that receded millions of years ago.

Plates collide and push mountains from below sea level to 20,000 or more feet into the air, buckling the earths crust like it were tinfoil being crumpled.

Our moon has been moving away from us since it was formed after a collision with us sometime in the ancient past... all the while its gravitational effects on our tides and our tidal bulge in our crust lessening with each passing moment.

Our sun cyclically and sometimes randomly bombards us with massive amounts of solar radiation, sometimes in extended spurts that wreak havoc with our "stable" climate patterns.

One day in actual relative short time compared to the planets age, that sun will grow just a little bit larger before it grows massively larger... but even that little bit will cook everything on the planet, billions of years before it actually gets large enough to consume us.

In all of that, our ocean depths, currents, topography, locations, temperatures and chemistry have drastically and constantly changed.

The oldest known reef fossils are around 500 million years old (yep in the mountains and coal beds, thousands of feet up and down with the oldest I think being in Vermont).

However, as far as I know the oldest known "living" coral beds are around 4000 years old. The rest of them are long gone....due to the ever changing planet.

So yes - the Atlantic current will go away at some point and be replaced by some other current. The effects will be grand on "our" minuscule timescale. But are they really grand on the timescale of even 5,000 years or 10,000 years let alone a million or two, which is minuscule in relation to the planets age and life? Is "our" time the ideal time, or was that some other age past or future? Who knows. I am sure the dinosaurs and various hominid and pre-hominid life forms thought things were grand too...

Don't look toward the sky too much, for that next impactor or pulsar may be coming straight at us and get you before parts of yellowstone are ejected to the moon....

 

[Northern Flicker]

Brian McNoldy (Senior Research Associate at the Univ. of Miami Rosenstiel School. Hurricanes, climatology, & sea level rise) is posting some interesting data on Miami, which may be relevant to our beloved Florida/Carib species:

Hours per year above 105F



Consecutive hours above specific thresholds

 

[D E N I N O]

If you care about climate change then why are you in a hobby where we literally buy rocks from the otherside of the world to then put them in our living rooms and hopefully kill them as slowly as possible.

This is like being worried about falling bullets while spraying machine gun fire into the air.

Yes the climate is changing, obviously... But what can you do about it? Not much really.

Why is climate change always measured in weird ways... "Hours per year above 105F". Is this actually a way to measure temperature shift?

I live in a town that was meant to be underwater by 2012 from what I learned in highschool, it's still very much above the water line.

Antarctica just recorded it's coldest temperature ever this month, ice is growing there and yet people predicted that would be gone long ago.

Also the earth is only warming when compared to 1850, which was the coldest period in the last 10,000 years.


This graph puts things into perspective, and it's from Climate.gov, not some nutters website created in their mothers basement.

What's the hottest Earth's ever been?

Earth’s hottest periods occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

www.climate.gov

Climate changes, it always has. Have we had an impact? Yes probably.

Can we do much about it, probably not.

Will earth adapt, yes it always has.

 

[Northern Flicker]

Came across this interesting paper - do we keep any corals from "deeper bathymetric distribution" from the South Atlantic in the hobby?

Our findings show that South Atlantic corals display critical features that make them less susceptible to mass coral bleaching: (i) deeper bathymetric distribution, as species have a mean maximum depth of occurrence of 70 m; (ii) higher tolerance to turbidity, as nearly 60% of species are found in turbid conditions; (iii) higher tolerance to nutrient enrichment, as nitrate concentration in the South Atlantic is naturally elevated; (iv) higher morphological resistance, as massive growth forms are dominant and comprise two thirds of species; and (v) more flexible symbiotic associations, as 75% of corals and 60% of symbiont phylotypes are generalists.

 

[Northern Flicker]

Antarctica just recorded it's coldest temperature ever this month, ice is growing there and yet people predicted that would be gone long ago.

Interestingly enough, it's not:

‘Something weird is going on’: search for answers as Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

Some scientists fear the ‘shocking’ shift is the beginning of a global heating-linked collapse of the ice that could have alarming knock-on effects

www.theguardian.com

However, it is unknown if this is driven by climate change or other factors. One theory mentioned in the article has to do with the warm lower layer getting warmer and warmer and eventually mixing with the top layer, raising the salinity and making it more difficult for ice to form.

 

[MnFish1]

Is it a discussion? Climate change isn't a political issue per se. Though some try to make it one. People of different parties have different opinions on both sides.

The climate is warming ok - Nothing we are doing is seeming to help much. IMHO, the largest problem for corals, etc - is pollution near beach areas - which is getting as the coastlines are becoming more populated. But - all is not doom and gloom - From Woods Hole (also not a political entity): https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/is-the-great-barrier-reef-making-a-comeback/

 

[BeanAnimal]

Why is climate change always measured in weird ways... "Hours per year above 105F". Is this actually a way to measure temperature shift?

Look hard enough and you can find a metric to align with whatever point you are trying to make.

The current "heat wave" is being classified by some statistics as the worst ever... based on temperatures from a few selected places. However, if we apply the heat index (being ignored here in favor of select temperatures in a few places) it was 4x as bad in MANY areas (most of the country) in the 1930s and 1940s.

So as hot as a few places are spending more "hours above" normal, far more places today are spending FAR fewer days than NORMAL above average temperatures. Yes - cooler, not hotter.

Which number or metric is correct? It depends on the argument that you are trying to make...

I mean we only have ~100 or so years of recorded (arguably not well) temperatures, 200 years of reasonable guesses and the rest is just crude guesstimates.

 

[Northern Flicker]

Is it a discussion? Climate change isn't a political issue per se. Though some try to make it one. People of different parties have different opinions on both sides.

The climate is warming ok - Nothing we are doing is seeming to help much. IMHO, the largest problem for corals, etc - is pollution near beach areas - which is getting as the coastlines are becoming more populated. But - all is not doom and gloom - From Woods Hole (also not a political entity): https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/is-the-great-barrier-reef-making-a-comeback/

Yes we discussed this exact article quite a bit in a previous thread.

“Instead of a diverse, old-growth forest, [the reef] may now be like a monoculture of planted pulp trees,’” says Hughen. With less diversity of corals on the Great Barrier, he adds, there will also be fewer structures that house and feed various species of fish and marine invertebrates.

A bit like cutting down a meadow of native plants and having it recover full of purple lupine and english ivy. Great that the plant cover is back, but worried about the loss of diversity, especially with repeated loss events in a short period of time.

Reefs are truly awesome, the ecosystem is so complex and the fact that it shows this level of resiliency gives me some hope.

Like most coral reefs, the Great Barrier Reef has always experienced natural highs and lows in coral cover and biodiversity. How low those lows are, says Hughen, can tell us more about the overall impacts from human activity and climate change. During this latest period of regrowth, the Northern and Central Great Barrier reefs saw an average increase in coral cover back to 36%—up from a historic low of 27%. This may be short-lived, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects an additional die-off of 70-90% of global corals if the world reaches 1.5°C (2.7°F) of warming.


There is still some encouraging news here. Despite multiple stressors like marine heatwaves, COTs, pollutants from agricultural runoff, and overfishing, this regrowth period demonstrates that the Great Barrier Reef is able to bounce back—even with one less pressure.


“The point is that reefs are resilient and they’re always recovering, even if not fully recovered,” Hughen emphasized. “The question is whether we’re going to keep impacting and damaging them faster than they can come back.”

I would hope that we can try to remove human made barriers to recovery and overall health.

 

[Northern Flicker]

Look hard enough and you can find a metric to align with whatever point you are trying to make.

Hi Bean. This thread is meant for people who do believe in Climate Change, including the impact of humans on it. I respect that you may not agree, but that's a discussion for a different thread with a different topic. Thanks.

 

[jkcoral]

Regardless of peoples views on climate change, human activity has had a visible and negative impact on our environment. From fertilizers and pollution contributing to the acidification of the oceans, to the giant patches of floating garbage in nature, to decimation of marine wildlife through rampant over fishing and destruction of natural habitats, human actions have had a meaningful negative effect on our environment and oceans.

When the issue of global warming and climate change comes up, it’s a complicated subject dealing with a macro scale that involves both natural changes over time and the role that humans play in the process. The topic is divisive, politically polarized, and deals with sophisticated models and estimates that can change. And I sometimes wonder if we’d be better off and more equipped to make positive changes if the public discussion included more talk about the more visible, negative impacts humans have on our immediate environment, that individual people have a greater ability to contribute to.

Apologies for the rant, these are just some thoughts I’ve developed over the years through my research focusing on how to meaningfully communicate about these complex and divisive topics with the public.

 

[Northern Flicker]

Regardless of peoples views on climate change, human activity has had a visible and negative impact on our environment. From fertilizers and pollution contributing to the acidification of the oceans, to the giant patches of floating garbage in nature, to decimation of marine wildlife through rampant over fishing and destruction of natural habitats, human actions have had a meaningful negative effect on our environment and oceans.

When the issue of global warming and climate change comes up, it’s a complicated subject dealing with a macro scale that involves both natural changes over time and the role that humans play in the process. The topic is divisive, politically polarized, and deals with sophisticated models and estimates that can change. And I sometimes wonder if we’d be better off and more equipped to make positive changes if the public discussion included more talk about the more visible, negative impacts humans have on our immediate environment, that individual people have a greater ability to contribute to.

Apologies for the rant, these are just some thoughts I’ve developed over the years through my research focusing on how to meaningfully communicate about these complex and divisive topics with the public.

Agreed!

Climate change and habitat protection both go hand in hand when it comes to keeping our reef ecosystems healthy.

 

[BeanAnimal]

Nothing we are doing is seeming to help much.

That is a whole other matter...

Take every one of the predictive models being used to drive climate action and pencil in from now moving forward ZERO man made emissions... The models all still predicts the same thing, like tapping the brakes milliseconds before impacting the brick wall. It may make you feel good for a moment, but changes nothing.

 

[Reefer Matt]

This might be a better topic for the lounge. My post and another on this issue got shut down because people couldn't behave.

 

[brandon429]

Drought and flood data and giant land-clearing fires are revealed in soil strata going back millennia

before the industrial revolution

the climate is always changing, animal life bouncing back with naturally selected adaptation. That both validates and invalidates the current cliffhanger view of climate change in my opinion and is a fitting balance to this thread. I don’t understand how someone in their 20s can have input on climate change anymore than someone in their 20s could tell us what ww2 was like. I honestly don’t see this as ageist it’s just being practical

I agree the climate is changing it’s darn hot in Austin. In December it will begin to change back to tolerable

I wouldn’t think that all counter material should be rejected from the thread, it’s a science forum.

 

[BeanAnimal]

From fertilizers and pollution contributing to the acidification of the oceans, to the giant patches of floating garbage in nature, to decimation of marine wildlife through rampant over fishing and destruction of natural habitats, human actions have had a meaningful negative effect on our environment and oceans.

While I don't agree with the acidification per-say yes we have made a mess of many things on a much smaller scale that does have an impact on many things aside from climate.

more talk about the more visible, negative impacts humans have on our immediate environment, that individual people have a greater ability to contribute to.

Would be a much better expenditure of time, money and resources that easily shows positive results.

 

[Northern Flicker]

I wouldn’t think that all counter material should be rejected from the thread, it’s a science forum.

I think that kind of discussion would break down into the usual "no I am right" - I was hoping this thread could specifically be a discussion for people who want to discuss how a changing climate is affecting reefs, what's being done, etc, but as is always true online...people just feel the need to scream their opinions anywhere they can.

Unfortunately, it is hard to talk about these things with other like-minded people for this reason. There will always be people who feel like they must inject their opinion. Would be open to reading their opinion on a thread meant for that type of debate, but instead, they feel the need to scream in here.

Good news is there is a helpful ignore button for erasing those rude posts!

 

[Solasis]

Leave it to a reefing forum to deny climate change - so unfortunate

 

[BeanAnimal]

I was hoping this thread could specifically be a discussion for people who want to discuss how a changing climate is affecting reefs, what's being done, etc, but as is always true online...people just feel the need to scream their opinions anywhere they can.

Short answers - the current coral reefs will go away, the very nature of our planet's existence dictates as much. Man is not powerful enough to have any means to change that. We have trouble moving rocks the size of cars and melting a tone or two of ore, let alone the power to move continents or melt solid rock.

Sure - we can sink a bus or a boat or make a man-made reef... but the ocean and the planet don't care, they are going to do what they do and easily erase even our best efforts in favor of their own endless journey.

 

[Northern Flicker]

This might be a better topic for the lounge. My post and another on this issue got shut down because people couldn't behave.

Matt, your post was great. I appreciated that article, it was a good read.

It's important to me that I keep exposing myself to reality, rather than just hope it's "not that bad", because I do think that doing so influences my day to day behaviours.

Just so easy to fall into that "oh well" mindset, but I have nephews and neices and I want to leave them with a better situation than is predicted if nothing changes.