The Reefcebo Effect?

[flampton]

I wanted to do a fun little post and poll so please read first and then answer the poll

So what's the reefcebo effect? Well since it's my invented word I'll give you the definition: it's confirming your positive results about a reefing product or method due to your beliefs it will work, the generated excitement because of this and/or extra commitment.

Now let's talk about what that means and why it has drastic implications for you and the forum. If a member of the forum for example purchases a coral nutritional product and is excited/committed to it, the ensuing results will likely be positive. This results in the member creating a post or answering other people's questions with USE THIS PRODUCT IT IS AMAZING!!

Did the product actually provide beneficial results or just neutral results? Neutral results would be that the reef would have similar results without the intervention. So if in actuality you get neutral results but feel the product was beneficial you're suffering from the reefcebo effect, which in general terms is referred to as a confirmation bias. You believe in it and thus that's your truth. Don't worry it's not a disease, its human nature. And human nature can tend to get even more drastic. This is when someone gets poor results and still says the product/method is working or even that it is amazing. This is just a more irrational reefc3bo effect. But Why? Because people intrinsically hate to be wrong, and will even go so far as saying their failing reef is actually doing awesome. This is cognitive dissonance, and every human has this problem to some extent. And what's more they are not liars, they believe this with all their heart!

A lot of this has to do with our skills as observers. We really put a lot of trust in our observations. The problem is we're not particularly good observers but we think we are. And there are numerous occupations that utilize this fact, for example magicians. Well a reef tank is a lot more complicated than anything a magician does. These poor observational skills were recognized pretty early on when we started exploring the sciences. And so a scientific method had to be established to help counteract these poor skills.

So how do I as a forum member lessen the reefcebo effect? Well glad you asked

So first things first, it is impossible to not have the reefcebo effect. It is not human nature. And biases like this have been extremely important in the constructions that we call culture. Life would not be the same if we were all robots even with all the chaos this causes.

But we can lessen it with some guidance…

So first is to acknowledge your belief/excitement/commitment. I know it sounds weird but if you accept this you're more likely to factor that in when you judge a product/method. And I guess I should finally define what I mean by committed, it's that you pay more attention to your aquarium and maintenance when using a new product/method and you see beneficial results. So the conundrum is whether the product did anything or the extra attention resulted in an improved reef. This unrealized commitment drives more wrong and unsound ideas into the forum than pretty much anything else. It's also unfortunately why new tools that truly benefit your reef have kinda stagnated.

Next is if a product promises results without the company including their ingredients, temper your expectations because there is going to be no science to back up their guarantee. What do you mean no science? Well even if a product says it is amazing and based on cutting edge science, this does not have to be true. What!!! Yup product labeling in the aquarium world only has to have a tiny bit of truth. And sometimes not even that. There's basically extremely limited government oversight. It's the Wild West and we are the buffalo. So without knowing the ingredients we have absolutely no ability to judge how potentially effective the product is. So you're not dealing in science you're dealing in trust. For example can you imagine going to the store and buying a product that says if you take this you'll be 10x smarter but there are no ingredients listed? Well for me that's a no thanks. Yet that's how we have to shop for our reef a lot of times.

And finally if you're on the forum and someone suggests something and they say it absolutely positively works perfectly. Well they're suffering from the reefcebo effect. And so move on until you find someone who lists at least one negative about the product/method. Then go further and find a second. Why? There are NO perfect products or methods. None. Especially with the wide variation of reefing styles. So you have to judge by what you gather from a wide range of opinions. And be especially wary of supposed gurus that dominate with their opinion by being repetitive and talking in absolutes. Again if someone is absolutely convinced in a product they have lost objectivity. Which reminds me about how people talk about their kids. If all these parents were actually correct it would be heaven on Earth. Lol!

And so in this reef world with all its intrinsic trade secrets you're sometimes going to be in the trust world and not the science world. Do some products work? Definitely. Do all products work as advertised? No!! In fact even with our most trusted products there is a level of variability. For example is the alkalinity of your salt going to be the same bucket to bucket? Nope as you will have fluctuations batch to batch.

And so I believe if you apply some of these principles you'll be a much happier and more successful reefer AND you'll become a more objective forum member. So win win!

Okay I know this is not a complete list of tools so I hope you'll answer the attached poll, add more interesting ideas, situations and psychological foibles in the thread. And I'll temper my expectations because well I believe this information is fun and important, others may not care.

Stay safe everyone and keep reefing!!
Eric

Oh and btw there is an opposite reaction related to the nocebo effect. And that's when you believe a product is harmful based on your belief system. E.g. that's not natural and so I'm not putting that in my tank! It's still a confirmation bias just in the opposite direction. This plays a role in the community as well.

 

[xxkenny90xx]

That was a very long and polite way to tell everybody to shush up right? Maybe your so convinced that the reefcebo is real that you have now lost all objectivity....

 

[ichthyogeek]

There’s also the ability to do experiments. Head out to the nearest Petco at the next $/gallon sale, and pick up a few 10 gallons. Next time there’s a product, you just set them up with as little variance as possible and run a control tank (no product added, or a placebo like an equivalent of RODI water) next to the experimental tank.

I can’t wait to move out so I can start doing experiments....

 

[flampton]

That was a very long and polite way to tell everybody to shush up right? Maybe your so convinced that the reefcebo is real that you have now lost all objectivity....

This is an example of confirmation bias. He believes my intentions are poor. He's basing this from reading my posts and his emotional reaction towards them.

 

[xxkenny90xx]

This is an example of confirmation bias. He believes my intentions are poor. He's basing this from reading my posts and his emotional reaction towards them.

Hmm well played, well played

 

[Sisterlimonpot]

Eric,

Your words are going to be lost on quite a few people.

Excellent post, hopefully it opens peoples eyes and make them think objectively.

 

[flampton]

Eric,

Your words are going to be lost on quite a few people.

Excellent post, hopefully it opens peoples eyes and make them think objectively.

Yes I know but I have to try and I really appreciate this

 

[Nano sapiens]

Along a related vein is the 'Skeptical Reefkeeping' series from Richard Ross (example 'Skeptical Reefkeeping 1' below):

https://reefs.com/magazine/skeptical-reefkeeping-i/

For those who have been in this hobby for a considerable period of time, I think that skepticism becomes more of the norm than the exception due to the accumulation of past experience.

In regards to the 'Reefcebo' effect, no doubt whether a novice reefer or a seasoned old salt this is a thing since it is a typical part of human nature (as pointed out). Not so easy to question and possibly reject one's long held beliefs since it becomes an integral part of 'who we are' (or at least 'who we think we are')

 

[jda]

I will also add that people often tend to confuse the last thing that they did as being the one that tipped the scales when it could have been 1). it was just time for things to work through normal maturity or time or 2). it was an overall rededication to their tank that made the difference, not a new product or method or 3). they just don't know enough to know what they are looking at.

There is also just parroting what people read online or watch in a video without knowing what is going on.

Chemistry is chemistry and biology is biology and there is more similar than different for successful tanks. I don't buy into the theory that there is an infinite way to run a reef tank... maybe with the multitudes in the periphery which end up being rounding errors, but in the core, they are all more alike than different.

I have lot of opinions, but I have seen them work (or not), changed to confirm them and then seen them work again (or not) before I make up my mind. I am convinced that there is not a single product ever offered to feed a coral that does enough to make the money and use worth while - used them, quit and then used them again and quit again and saw no difference. ...same thing with supplements over just changing some water - any not-lazy method is fine. Also have had longer times with higher N and P and contrary to the current trends, useless compared to just having high availability (ammonia/ammonium for N and a trace of P) and low residual levels. All tested, retested in my home and then discussed with competent friends who have done the same thing. Anecdotes, sure.. but in a hobby where this is mostly what we have, this works for me.

If more people took the time to understand the basics about the whole N cycle (most stop before the end), how P binds to aragonite/calcite/dolomite, the real function of live rock and value of microfauna, which organisms can/cannot use nitrate and how light beyond the visible spectrum provides value, then this would all be a lot easier.

Most of my skepticism comes from vendors and retailers, not from experienced hobbyists or authors that survived the publication process. Like you, I am wary of black boxes promising results. Some vendors just flat out lie - we had an assay done of a UWC product and there was NOTHING in it that they said was in the bottle. I love to read about what smart reefers have done and what they think, but I don't care what what BRS had to say or EcoTech's made up company that puts out infomercials disguised as science. I cannot remember which one, but some made-up science from a LED manufacturer said to use their LED lights since the coral in our tanks come from the part of the ocean where only blue light penetrates even though nearly nobody has ever scuba that low into the deep - and if you did James Cameron might want to tag along to film it.

All of this leads to a large divide in people on the board. However, to be fair, there are a lot of people who understand this and they all just linger or disappear and use messages or even their phone to trade and have a laugh so that they don't have to deal with the noobies, front runners and shills.

Also, keep in mind that if everybody did their homework, learned what they needed to know and avoided hyperbole and assumptions, then this board would have 100 posts a day, could not sell ads and would shut down. The at-times stupidity keeps the engine running.

 

[ichthyogeek]

Also, keep in mind that if everybody did their homework, learned what they needed to know and avoided hyperbole and assumptions, then this board would have 100 posts a day, could not sell ads and would shut down. The at-times stupidity keeps the engine running.

That...or we could have a mini scientific revolution. Companies would get better at testing and R&D. We'd have a lot more people asking more advanced questions and jump starting other's brains. Which would lead to better answers and deeper understanding. We'd still probably have a lot more "new to reefing" (not necessarily "new to forums") posts though.

 

[chipmunkofdoom2]

The problem is we're not particularly good observers but we think we are.

This is true in all walks of life. Our brains evolved to deal with eating, sleeping, breeding and avoiding danger. We've done a pretty good job adapting to modern society, but the evidence of our cognitive shortcomings is everywhere.

The scientific method and double blind studies exist because we're really bad at being objective and terrible at critical thinking beyond primitive survival.

 

[jda]

That...or we could have a mini scientific revolution. Companies would get better at testing and R&D. We'd have a lot more people asking more advanced questions and jump starting other's brains. Which would lead to better answers and deeper understanding. We'd still probably have a lot more "new to reefing" (not necessarily "new to forums") posts though.

Touche. On the companies and R&D, what do you think that we are missing? Most anything that you need to be successful has been around for a long time except for some key developments in fish food to add in some HUFAs and vitamins which seem to keep HLLE away and better color, growth and longevity. Fish and fauna can make ammonia/ammonium, there are bacteria to handle the rest and heating, lighting and flow were handled. I am just a simpleton, but what else could we possibly be missing that would work on our scale? I am of the believe that besides NLS Pellets (or the like... better food), PE Mysis and Hannah Ultra Low Phosphorus Checker, there has not been a product in the last decade that really was needed or truly changed the hobby in a way beyond different. I would love to hear of some products that we are missing out on since I want more and better stuff.

You can get some good conversations and answers on this board, but you will usually have those conversations with the same folks nearly every time. I saw some of you on one that 2sunny started when he was wondering about current trend of "feeding corals with nitrate" and about how his tanks never have any that can be measured (nor can mine) and his tanks are beautiful with great growth. You got some Dr. RFH, Lasse and maybe some Salstrom and the like. You can get some really good stuff there. However, notice most of the rest on that thread and pay attention to how they post in the future, who no matter how many times that you tell them that nitrate is not coral food or that there is more P in the aragonite than in the water column, they just keep on posting and posting like you were talking to a fire hydrant. Even if you break stuff down into simple sentences like "ammonia/ammonium is what gives most corals their nitrogen" they still come back and post suggesting the dosing of sodium nitrate.

For example, I posted from day one about dry rock being a horrible idea, leading to lack of diversity, sterile conditions (nothing to eat ich tomonts once they hit the substrate, etc.), lack of bio filter (especially anaerobic) and the eventual increased cost of dealing with matt bacteria, maybe dinos (just a guess at the time on my part), removing bound terrestrial P, etc - one BRS video just destroyed the few voices who saw what was coming. Or, the current trend of dosing N and P to "feed coral" and ALL of the things that are SO wrong with those two words. They mostly fall on deaf ears. The ones who are not deaf like to send PMs about how you are a dinosaur who needs to get with the times, even though these people who like to send the "super helpful" PM have never had the same success that you have had. I just keep doing it for the few people that every so often send a PM or post of thanks for actually explaining something that caused them to think or helped them become a better reefer and have better results. I have learned a lot and want to still help even if it comes at a cost - it is worth it to help just a few. I have mostly given up on the masses.

There are too many who think that if you are not 100% with them, then any that you say is an attack. They want the reefcebo as long as it is on their side of the reefcebo. This is not limited to reefing, as we all know. The ones who get it just don't post as much. The sad fact is that most just disappear when they get and learn what they needed and I wish that more would stick around and teach forward.

I thought about the original post some more and have come to the conclusion that most people who will get something from it probably did not need to read it, but it was still worth it if only even one person takes some time to think.

 

[flampton]

@jda

I agree with all of this excepting about reef products. e.g. If a company actually looked into culturing more diverse beneficial microfauna.

Right now we're limited in our abilities to get the diversity we want and avoiding the diversity we don't want. So if a company started producing a product that has a guaranteed pest free profile that would be amazing. And what I mean is not something basic like a copepod mix. I'm thinking beneficial bacteria cultured from the ocean (not the terrestrial bacteria currently sold on the market) and a mix of various ciliates and other protozoa, copepods, coralline etc...

However the problem is how do you convince a company this would be great when start up would be extremely expensive. And convince them to list their ingredients and why each benthic and pelagic organism is helpful to the tank. All the while make sure to tell people that this information is based on scientific reasoning but it has not been formally tested in the laboratory and thus there can be no guarantee. Lol...

Sadly at this point there is no incentive. If we had adequate competition and a larger population of hobbyist I think what are tanks look like now would be fantastically better. Can you imagine if almost everyone had to have a reef tank? I mean look at the evolution of the car.

I will tell you a very smart idea is that if I was someone like KP aquatics, I would sell live rock that has been picked clean of all noticeable macrofauna and then smash it into pieces , destroying whatever macrofauna I could not remove, and then shipping small amounts of this product everywhere. While with this method you won't be able to get rid of micropests, but even with this caveat I think it can be more advantageous for people who for whatever reason do not want live rock. Unfortunately because of the state of the knowledge currently I'm not sure this product would even sell.

And yes I realized after the first comment posted that I was preaching to the choir. But I don't regret the post.

Thanks for all your insight, I'm really enjoying this thread everyone!!

 

[Sisterlimonpot]

I thought about the original post some more and have come to the conclusion that most people who will get something from it probably did not need to read it, but it was still worth it if only even one person takes some time to think.

I agree, and theres something to be said about someone who despite the facts wants to live inside the belly of complacency. As if "ignorance is bliss", "what you don't know, wont hurt you".

 

[ichthyogeek]

Touche. On the companies and R&D, what do you think that we are missing? Most anything that you need to be successful has been around for a long time except for some key developments in fish food to add in some HUFAs and vitamins which seem to keep HLLE away and better color, growth and longevity. Fish and fauna can make ammonia/ammonium, there are bacteria to handle the rest and heating, lighting and flow were handled. I am just a simpleton, but what else could we possibly be missing that would work on our scale? I am of the believe that besides NLS Pellets (or the like... better food), PE Mysis and Hannah Ultra Low Phosphorus Checker, there has not been a product in the last decade that really was needed or truly changed the hobby in a way beyond different. I would love to hear of some products that we are missing out on since I want more and better stuff.

In regards to R&D, I want to see actual tests. Or better, I want to see companies posting job listings asking for alpha and beta (betta? better?) testers!

Take, for example, NLS. If I recall correctly, they claim their food is a good all in one diet, and that it can be superior to frozen foods. But where are the tests? What fish and test did they use to show that the fish have better colors when fed NLS vs, say, Wardley? And how does that compare to fish fed diets that are incredibly high in astaxanthin and other carotenoids? Nutritional superiority is great on paper. But how does it translate to in vivo tests? Omega One touts that it uses whole seafood, which is great. But there are a lot of anecdotes about the fish not taking the food (I guess similar to how kids don't like improperly cooked vegetables?).

There's a massive Vibrant thread on this forum. But has anybody done a sterile test showing what happens to hair algae/bryopsis/whatever when dosed with various amounts of Vibrant? In a system without Vibrant vs. with Vibrant? [I'll admit, the Vibrant thread is incredibly intimidating, so I haven't read through the entirety of it...]

Or we'll get something that looks like a rigorous experiment, but misses out on key factors. Take BRS' algal turf scrubber vs. protein skimmer video. They forgot to do tests on protein skimmers....

TL;DR: show me the data!!!

PaulB has a great brine shrimp feeder for mandarin dragonets. There are designs online. And with the current technology, we could easily mass manufacture it. So then why (unless Paul's got a patent on it) do we not have all of these mass produced brine shrimp feeders by Ziss, or Lee's for feeding dragonets?

 

[ichthyogeek]

Regarding dinosaurs and getting people to learn...it's half using emotions and being nice about it, and half using logic...you can't argue with properly done science. I wonder if there've been any papers that detail coral uptake of ammonia/ammonium vs. nitrates and phosphates vs. (whatever it is corals use to get their necessary phosphorus)

Edit: Also, garlic. Just...garlic.

 

[jda]

All of this is worthwhile. First, if you don't try them you don't get to complain - there is something altogether satisfying in this. Second, even if you reach one person, it is worth it.

GARF and IPSF sell grunge and micro rubble that REALLY help with diversity. BRS has not done a video on this, so too few know. This stuff can jumpstart a tank in SO many way.

Ocean live rock shipped overnight in newspaper is really effective. First, most all of the good microfauna lives... pods, starfish, bacteria, etc. Most of the larger, undesirable stuff crawls out and dies - mantis shrimp, gorilla crabs, etc. This is not foolproof, but it is very close. You still get the phosphate-free porous structure for anoxic bacteria and to buffer phosphate at lower levels... awesome stuff.

BTW - the most effective argument that I have ever had was this: In the olden days, people used to always say that mature tanks were easier to get and keep new fish. This was before the days where lots of people had QT setups. They thought that it was the stability that did this, but nope... it was after the micro fauna had spread throughout the tank. If/when a fish came in with ich, the ich would eventually fall to the substrate/rock in the normal cycle where it was fighting for it's life from all of the microfauna. I feel sorry for any ich that comes into my tank. While this is surely not eradication, I have not seen a trace of ich in 20 years. ...so live rock and a diverse tank will lead to less ich. People can get with this. However, they still don't seem to understand that the "pests" they they are trying to avoid with dry/dead rock will all come in with the first frag plug if you are not smart or have a coral QT... but there are natural ways to control these too. After a bout with ich, most people are ready to order some live rock and wait for it to spread - massive death is a compelling argument, but I wish that more knew this beforehand.

 

[flampton]

Well for my tank I wanted dry rock so I could create the exact structures I was looking for. And then the first thing in the tank was from IPSF. I asked KP aquatics when there 1lb size of live rock was going to be available, the owner said this weekend, three weekends ago. Then they never actually provided it for sale. Which reminds that I need to ask them again.

And btw starting a tank with dry rock is extremely boring in the beginning. I mean it is almost excruciating when I look in and see sterile white aragonite staring back at me.

I still ask myself once in awhile, hey did you really need that rockscape design? lol

 

[Sisterlimonpot]

BRS has not done a video on this, so too few know.

That statement rings true on so many levels, I've often referred to certain hobbyists as tourists, they're only visiting and when they do, most of their time is spent being entertained by BRS videos.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on who you are) this ship that we call "reefing hobby" is being steered by entities the likes of BRS, and if they didn't say it's true, then it must not be.

 

[jda]

Regarding dinosaurs and getting people to learn...it's half using emotions and being nice about it, and half using logic...you can't argue with properly done science. I wonder if there've been any papers that detail coral uptake of ammonia/ammonium vs. nitrates and phosphates vs. (whatever it is corals use to get their necessary phosphorus)

I somewhat disagree with this. Plenty of people disagree with properly-done science... flat earthers, anti vaxxers and many more. ...that properly done science gets called hoaxes and overblown liberal/conservative media (whatever helps their argument). Properly done scientists get called nuts and whack jobs. We have virus deniers right now... 200k people are not really dead.

Also, honey over vinegar works for favors and friendships, but when leading people and making dynamic things better, those that need niceness are mostly never going to be all that they can be. The best kindness that anybody can pay a truly dynamic individual is by giving them a hard truth that they do not see or otherwise would not get - the manner in how it is delivered does not matter to the exceptional. This could come in the form of a punch in the mouth (figurative or literal - for those of you who are old enough to remember the lessons that a fight could give you), a loss in a sporting or other event, a passing by comment or assessment or even a long lecture. There are many more. The best sports coaches or leaders in any field do not care about being nice, rather being honest and direct. Kinda like the first post in this thread, the people who will take your hard truth and do some self-examining will not care if it was nice or not. The people who need this to be nice are a waste of your words. I have led a lot of people and made a lot of young men and women into better versions and I can tell you that three things are needed - an ability to explain and communicate, honesty and directness... niceness does not matter at all. I guess that another part would be to let people go who do want to argue with well-done science... you cannot reach everybody.

@Sisterlimonpot - I truly appreciate that somebody noticed and liked my snark.